Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 11, 2015
Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Getafe and Real Sociedad drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Getafe win 1 of 10, Real Sociedad 6, and 3 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 1 | 0.46 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 1.59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Getafe about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 1, 3 end level, Real Sociedad win 6.
- 1 GET 2 RSO 1
- 2 GET 0 RSO 0
- 3 GET 1 RSO 1
- 4 GET 0 RSO 0
- 5 GET 0 RSO 4
- 6 GET 1 RSO 4
- 7 GET 0 RSO 2
- 8 GET 0 RSO 2
- 9 GET 0 RSO 1
- 10 GET 1 RSO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 13%, 27% end level, Real Sociedad win 61%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Getafe by 2 | 2.1% |
| Getafe by 1 | 9.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 29.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 18.7% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 12.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 9 | 1 | 0.46 | +0.54 |
 Real Sociedad | 10 | 1 | 1.59 | −0.59 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 50' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 67' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.66 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% GET |
| 2 | 28' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% GET |
| 3 | 33' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% GET |
| 4 | 45' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +27% GET |
| 5 | 50' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +11% GET |
| 6 | 67' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +12% RSO |
| 7 | 74' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% GET |
| 8 | 87' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 8% · draw 21% · Real Sociedad 71%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 13% · draw 27% · Real Sociedad 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal