Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 13, 2015
Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Real Madrid 1–0, but the replays call it even: Villarreal win 3 of 10, Real Madrid 4, 3 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 | 0.94 |
 Real Madrid | 0 | 1.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Villarreal lucky · −54 Real Madrid
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 3, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 4.
- 1 VIL 1 RMA 0
- 2 VIL 2 RMA 1
- 3 VIL 2 RMA 0
- 4 VIL 1 RMA 1
- 5 VIL 1 RMA 1
- 6 VIL 1 RMA 1
- 7 VIL 0 RMA 3
- 8 VIL 0 RMA 2
- 9 VIL 0 RMA 1
- 10 VIL 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 32%, 28% end level, Real Madrid win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 4.2% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 8.5% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 19.2% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 22.1% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 11.6% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 6.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 7 | 1 | 0.94 | +0.06 |
 Real Madrid | 20 | 0 | 1.49 | −1.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 48' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +14% VIL |
| 2 | 26' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% RMA |
| 3 | 48' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +11% VIL |
| 4 | 55' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% VIL |
| 5 | 57' | James David Rodríguez Rubio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% VIL |
| 6 | 67' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% VIL |
| 7 | 72' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% VIL |
| 8 | 93' | Sergio Ramos García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 24% · draw 26% · Real Madrid 50%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 32% · draw 28% · Real Madrid 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga