Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Las Palmas 1–0 Betis: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Betis 1–0, and the replays lean Las Palmas’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Betis, 3 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 1 | 1.23 |
 Real Betis | 0 | 0.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Las Palmas lucky · −30 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 5, 3 end level, Betis win 2.
- 1 LPA 1 BET 0
- 2 LPA 2 BET 1
- 3 LPA 2 BET 0
- 4 LPA 2 BET 0
- 5 LPA 3 BET 0
- 6 LPA 1 BET 1
- 7 LPA 0 BET 0
- 8 LPA 0 BET 0
- 9 LPA 0 BET 1
- 10 LPA 0 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 55%, 30% end level, Betis win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 9.8% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 16.8% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 28.1% |
| Draw | 30.3% |
| Betis by 1 | 11.7% |
| Betis by 2 | 3.0% |
| Betis by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 16 | 1 | 1.23 | −0.23 |
 Betis | 8 | 0 | 0.46 | −0.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 3' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 92' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +9% BET |
| 2 | 16' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% BET |
| 3 | 35' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% LPA |
| 4 | 58' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LPA |
| 5 | 65' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LPA |
| 6 | 79' | Heiko Westermann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LPA |
| 7 | 84' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% BET |
| 8 | 92' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +42% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 59% · draw 28% · Betis 13%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 55% · draw 30% · Betis 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Betis
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal