Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 13, 2015
Eibar 1–1 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Eibar and Valencia drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Eibar win 9 of 10, Valencia 0, and 1 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 2.61 |
 Valencia | 1 | 0.39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −43 Eibar unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 9, 1 ends level, Valencia win 0.
- 1 EIB 1 VAL 0
- 2 EIB 1 VAL 0
- 3 EIB 3 VAL 1
- 4 EIB 2 VAL 0
- 5 EIB 3 VAL 0
- 6 EIB 4 VAL 1
- 7 EIB 4 VAL 0
- 8 EIB 4 VAL 0
- 9 EIB 8 VAL 2
- 10 EIB 0 VAL 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 88%, 9% end level, Valencia win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 49.3% |
| Eibar by 2 | 21.2% |
| Eibar by 1 | 17.8% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| Valencia by 1 | 2.4% |
| Valencia by 2 | 0.4% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 14 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.61 | −1.61 |
 Valencia | 6 | 1 | 0.39 | +0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 44' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shot | 0.74 |
| 65' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 84' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VAL |
| 2 | 13' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +9% VAL |
| 3 | 44' | Sergio Enrich Ametller scored from a shotFinishing · 74% chance | +8% EIB |
| 4 | 65' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% VAL |
| 5 | 65' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +2% VAL |
| 6 | 66' | Shkodran Mustafi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% EIB |
| 7 | 84' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +36% VAL |
| 8 | 92' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 3% chance | +2% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 92% · draw 7% · Valencia 1%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 88% · draw 9% · Valencia 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Valencia
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal