Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 13, 2015
Atlético 2–1 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Athletic 2–1, but the replays lean toward Athletic: 6 wins in 10 to Atlético’s 1, 3 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 0.40 |
 Athletic Club | 1 | 1.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 Atlético very lucky · −75 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 1, 3 end level, Athletic win 6.
- 1 ATM 1 ATH 0
- 2 ATM 1 ATH 1
- 3 ATM 0 ATH 0
- 4 ATM 1 ATH 1
- 5 ATM 0 ATH 3
- 6 ATM 0 ATH 2
- 7 ATM 0 ATH 2
- 8 ATM 1 ATH 2
- 9 ATM 0 ATH 1
- 10 ATM 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 12%, 27% end level, Athletic win 61%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Atlético by 2 | 2.1% |
| Atlético by 1 | 9.2% |
| Draw | 27.0% |
| Athletic by 1 | 29.8% |
| Athletic by 2 | 18.8% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 12.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 8 | 2 | 0.40 | +1.60 |
 Athletic | 10 | 1 | 1.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shot | 0.65 |
| 46' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 66' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 2 | 25' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ATM |
| 3 | 26' | Aymeric Laporte scored from a shotFinishing · 65% chance | +10% ATH |
| 4 | 46' | The game turned hereSaúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +28% ATM |
| 5 | 51' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +10% ATM |
| 6 | 57' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ATM |
| 7 | 66' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +34% ATM |
| 8 | 85' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 12% · draw 24% · Athletic 64%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 12% · draw 27% · Athletic 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 25% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal