Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Barcelona and Deportivo drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 5 of 10, Deportivo 2, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 2 | 1.04 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −10 Barcelona about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 5, 3 end level, Deportivo win 2.
- 1 BAR 2 DEP 1
- 2 BAR 1 DEP 0
- 3 BAR 2 DEP 1
- 4 BAR 3 DEP 1
- 5 BAR 4 DEP 1
- 6 BAR 0 DEP 0
- 7 BAR 1 DEP 1
- 8 BAR 0 DEP 0
- 9 BAR 0 DEP 2
- 10 BAR 1 DEP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 46%, 29% end level, Deportivo win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 7.4% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 13.2% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 25.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 17.4% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 5.5% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 19 | 2 | 1.04 | +0.96 |
 Deportivo | 12 | 2 | 0.99 | +1.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kick | 0.06 |
| 61' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 76' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 85' | Alejandro Bergantiños García scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% DEP |
| 2 | 14' | Jonathan Javier Rodríguez Portillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% BAR |
| 3 | 31' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% DEP |
| 4 | 38' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +26% BAR |
| 5 | 47' | Jonathan Javier Rodríguez Portillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% BAR |
| 6 | 61' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +10% BAR |
| 7 | 76' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +4% DEP |
| 8 | 85' | Alejandro Bergantiños García scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +43% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 36% · draw 30% · Deportivo 34%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 46% · draw 29% · Deportivo 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–2 Granada Dec 12, 2015 · replay 62% for Granada
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal