Matchday 15 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 12, 2015
Levante 1–2 Granada: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Levante 2–1, and the replays lean Granada’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Levante, 4 end level. Granada made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 1 | 0.43 |
 Granada | 2 | 0.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Granada lucky · −38 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 2, 4 end level, Granada win 4.
- 1 LEV 1 GRA 0
- 2 LEV 1 GRA 0
- 3 LEV 2 GRA 2
- 4 LEV 0 GRA 0
- 5 LEV 0 GRA 0
- 6 LEV 0 GRA 0
- 7 LEV 0 GRA 2
- 8 LEV 0 GRA 1
- 9 LEV 0 GRA 1
- 10 LEV 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 18%, 40% end level, Granada win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Levante by 2 | 3.3% |
| Levante by 1 | 14.2% |
| Draw | 40.2% |
| Granada by 1 | 27.6% |
| Granada by 2 | 10.6% |
| Granada by 3+ | 3.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 7 | 1 | 0.43 | +0.57 |
 Granada | 8 | 2 | 0.76 | +1.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 65' | Simão Mate scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 87' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GRA |
| 2 | 49' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +25% GRA |
| 3 | 55' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% GRA |
| 4 | 65' | Simão Mate scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +33% LEV |
| 5 | 82' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GRA |
| 6 | 84' | Javier Márquez Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% LEV |
| 7 | 84' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +14% LEV |
| 8 | 87' | The game turned hereAdalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +47% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 18% · draw 38% · Granada 44%
- Final margin
- Granada by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 18% · draw 40% · Granada 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 15 matches, 2015-16 · Levante · Granada
More from matchday 15, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Real Sociedad Dec 11, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 1–0 Espanyol Dec 12, 2015 · replay 80% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–0 Betis Dec 12, 2015 · replay 70% for Las Palmas
- Sevilla 2–0 Sporting Dec 12, 2015 · replay 92% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 2–2 Deportivo Dec 12, 2015 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Eibar 1–1 Valencia Dec 13, 2015 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Atlético 2–1 Athletic Dec 13, 2015 · replay 25% for Atlético
- Rayo 1–2 Málaga Dec 13, 2015 · replay 49% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Real Madrid Dec 13, 2015 · replay 46% for Villarreal