Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 30, 2016
Eibar 1–2 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Eibar 2–1, and the replays lean Málaga’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Eibar, 3 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 1 | 0.93 |
 Málaga | 2 | 1.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Málaga lucky · −32 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 2, 3 end level, Málaga win 5.
- 1 EIB 1 MAL 0
- 2 EIB 2 MAL 0
- 3 EIB 1 MAL 1
- 4 EIB 2 MAL 2
- 5 EIB 1 MAL 1
- 6 EIB 0 MAL 3
- 7 EIB 0 MAL 2
- 8 EIB 0 MAL 2
- 9 EIB 1 MAL 2
- 10 EIB 1 MAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 19%, 26% end level, Málaga win 55%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Eibar by 2 | 4.1% |
| Eibar by 1 | 13.5% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Málaga by 1 | 25.9% |
| Málaga by 2 | 16.4% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 12.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 11 | 1 | 0.93 | +0.07 |
 Málaga | 7 | 2 | 1.33 | +0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 44' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 89' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 90' | Roque Luis Santa Cruz Cantero scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 93' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | David Juncà Reñé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% MAL |
| 2 | 20' | Gonzalo Castro Irizábal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% EIB |
| 3 | 31' | Takashi Inui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% MAL |
| 4 | 44' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +18% MAL |
| 5 | 52' | Daniel García Carrillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAL |
| 6 | 63' | Gonzalo Escalante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% MAL |
| 7 | 67' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% MAL |
| 8 | 74' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 23% · draw 29% · Málaga 47%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 19% · draw 26% · Málaga 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Málaga
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