Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 31, 2016
Real Madrid 6–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Espanyol 6–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 1.5. An own goal helped Real Madrid.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 6 | 2.40 |
 Espanyol | 0 | 1.48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Real Madrid about even · −14 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 8, 1 ends level, Espanyol win 1.
- 1 RMA 1 ESP 0
- 2 RMA 2 ESP 1
- 3 RMA 3 ESP 1
- 4 RMA 2 ESP 0
- 5 RMA 3 ESP 0
- 6 RMA 4 ESP 1
- 7 RMA 4 ESP 0
- 8 RMA 6 ESP 0
- 9 RMA 1 ESP 1
- 10 RMA 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 80%, 12% end level, Espanyol win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 6.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 43.1% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.0% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 18.0% |
| Draw | 11.7% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 5.6% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 1.8% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 18 (1 pen) | 5 | 2.40 | +2.60 |
 Espanyol | 15 | 0 | 1.48 | −1.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 11' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 15' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 44' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 72' | Abraham González Casanova didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 81' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Marcelo Vieira da Silva Júnior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% ESP |
| 2 | 1' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% RMA |
| 3 | 2' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ESP |
| 4 | 5' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ESP |
| 5 | 6' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +20% RMA |
| 6 | 11' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% RMA |
| 7 | 15' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +4% RMA |
| 8 | 44' | Salvador Sevilla López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +1% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 93% · draw 5% · Espanyol 2%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 6
- Luck in goals
- 4.0 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 80% · draw 12% · Espanyol 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 86% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Betis Jan 30, 2016 · replay 44% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 1–2 Málaga Jan 30, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Getafe 0–1 Athletic Jan 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Athletic
- Villarreal 1–0 Granada Jan 30, 2016 · replay 82% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Atlético Jan 30, 2016 · replay 47% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 3–1 Levante Jan 31, 2016 · replay 87% for Sevilla
- Valencia 0–1 Sporting Jan 31, 2016 · replay 32% for Sporting
- Las Palmas 2–1 Celta Jan 31, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Deportivo 2–2 Rayo Feb 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws