Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 31, 2016
Valencia 0–1 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Sporting beat Valencia 1–0, but the replays lean toward Valencia: 6 wins in 10 to Sporting’s 2, 2 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 0 | 2.91 |
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 1.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Sporting very lucky · −68 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 6, 2 end level, Sporting win 2.
- 1 VAL 2 SPO 1
- 2 VAL 2 SPO 1
- 3 VAL 6 SPO 4
- 4 VAL 2 SPO 0
- 5 VAL 3 SPO 0
- 6 VAL 5 SPO 0
- 7 VAL 1 SPO 1
- 8 VAL 2 SPO 2
- 9 VAL 2 SPO 4
- 10 VAL 1 SPO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 60%, 17% end level, Sporting win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Sporting by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 22.7% |
| Valencia by 2 | 17.8% |
| Valencia by 1 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 17.1% |
| Sporting by 1 | 11.7% |
| Sporting by 2 | 7.4% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 18 | 0 | 2.91 | −2.91 |
 Sporting | 9 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.49 | −0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 79' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shot | 0.63 |
| 81' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 85' | Carlos Carmona Bonet didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Pablo Daniel Piatti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% SPO |
| 2 | 2' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +4% SPO |
| 3 | 38' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% SPO |
| 4 | 49' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% SPO |
| 5 | 77' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +9% SPO |
| 6 | 79' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +28% SPO |
| 7 | 81' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +15% SPO |
| 8 | 94' | Sofiane Feghouli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +14% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 68% · draw 19% · Sporting 14%
- Final margin
- Sporting by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 60% · draw 17% · Sporting 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sporting win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Valencia · Sporting
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Betis Jan 30, 2016 · replay 44% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 1–2 Málaga Jan 30, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Getafe 0–1 Athletic Jan 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Athletic
- Villarreal 1–0 Granada Jan 30, 2016 · replay 82% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Atlético Jan 30, 2016 · replay 47% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 6–0 Espanyol Jan 31, 2016 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 3–1 Levante Jan 31, 2016 · replay 87% for Sevilla
- Las Palmas 2–1 Celta Jan 31, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Deportivo 2–2 Rayo Feb 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws