Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 31, 2016
Las Palmas 2–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Celta 2–1, and the replays lean Las Palmas’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Celta, 3 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 2 | 1.70 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 0.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Las Palmas lucky · −29 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 6, 3 end level, Celta win 1.
- 1 LPA 1 CEL 0
- 2 LPA 1 CEL 0
- 3 LPA 1 CEL 0
- 4 LPA 2 CEL 0
- 5 LPA 2 CEL 0
- 6 LPA 3 CEL 0
- 7 LPA 0 CEL 0
- 8 LPA 2 CEL 2
- 9 LPA 0 CEL 0
- 10 LPA 0 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 58%, 25% end level, Celta win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 12.2% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 18.6% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 27.6% |
| Draw | 25.3% |
| Celta by 1 | 11.7% |
| Celta by 2 | 4.0% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 13 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.70 | +0.30 |
 Celta | 5 | 1 | 0.56 | +0.44 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 27' | Aythami Artiles Oliva didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 32' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 89' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +21% CEL |
| 2 | 8' | Claudio Beauvue didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% LPA |
| 3 | 19' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 23' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% LPA |
| 5 | 27' | Aythami Artiles Oliva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +10% CEL |
| 6 | 32' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% LPA |
| 7 | 54' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CEL |
| 8 | 89' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +41% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 71% · draw 21% · Celta 8%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 58% · draw 25% · Celta 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Celta
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- Barcelona 2–1 Atlético Jan 30, 2016 · replay 47% for Barcelona
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