Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 30, 2016
Getafe 0–1 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Getafe 1–0, and the replays lean Athletic’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Getafe, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 0 | 1.41 |
 Athletic Club | 1 | 1.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Athletic lucky · −42 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 3, 3 end level, Athletic win 4.
- 1 GET 2 ATH 1
- 2 GET 2 ATH 1
- 3 GET 3 ATH 1
- 4 GET 3 ATH 3
- 5 GET 2 ATH 2
- 6 GET 2 ATH 2
- 7 GET 0 ATH 3
- 8 GET 1 ATH 3
- 9 GET 2 ATH 3
- 10 GET 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 29%, 26% end level, Athletic win 45%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 3.8% |
| Getafe by 2 | 8.6% |
| Getafe by 1 | 16.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Athletic by 1 | 21.0% |
| Athletic by 2 | 13.9% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 9.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 11 | 0 | 1.41 | −1.41 |
 Athletic | 14 | 1 | 1.46 | −0.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shot | 0.56 |
| 23' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 65' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 90' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% GET |
| 2 | 12' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +15% GET |
| 3 | 23' | The game turned hereIñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +24% ATH |
| 4 | 29' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +4% GET |
| 5 | 65' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +18% ATH |
| 6 | 79' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATH |
| 7 | 81' | Stefan Šćepović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ATH |
| 8 | 90' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +30% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 35% · draw 29% · Athletic 37%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 29% · draw 26% · Athletic 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Betis Jan 30, 2016 · replay 44% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 1–2 Málaga Jan 30, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Villarreal 1–0 Granada Jan 30, 2016 · replay 82% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Atlético Jan 30, 2016 · replay 47% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 6–0 Espanyol Jan 31, 2016 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 3–1 Levante Jan 31, 2016 · replay 87% for Sevilla
- Valencia 0–1 Sporting Jan 31, 2016 · replay 32% for Sporting
- Las Palmas 2–1 Celta Jan 31, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Deportivo 2–2 Rayo Feb 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws