Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 30, 2016
Villarreal 1–0 Granada: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Granada 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 | 2.22 |
 Granada | 0 | 0.68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Villarreal about even · −18 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 7, 2 end level, Granada win 1.
- 1 VIL 1 GRA 0
- 2 VIL 2 GRA 1
- 3 VIL 2 GRA 1
- 4 VIL 2 GRA 0
- 5 VIL 3 GRA 1
- 6 VIL 4 GRA 1
- 7 VIL 5 GRA 0
- 8 VIL 1 GRA 1
- 9 VIL 0 GRA 0
- 10 VIL 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 73%, 17% end level, Granada win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 27.6% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 21.4% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 24.0% |
| Draw | 17.1% |
| Granada by 1 | 7.3% |
| Granada by 2 | 1.9% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 13 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.22 | −1.22 |
 Granada | 8 | 0 | 0.68 | −0.68 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +4% GRA |
| 2 | 18' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% VIL |
| 3 | 18' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% GRA |
| 4 | 18' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% GRA |
| 5 | 20' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% GRA |
| 6 | 23' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% VIL |
| 7 | 52' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% GRA |
| 8 | 54' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 78% · draw 16% · Granada 7%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 73% · draw 17% · Granada 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 22 matches, 2015-16 · Villarreal · Granada
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