Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 30, 2016
Real Sociedad 2–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Betis 2–1, but the replays lean toward Betis: 4 wins in 10 to Real Sociedad’s 3, 3 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 0.54 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Real Sociedad lucky · −56 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 3, 3 end level, Betis win 4.
- 1 RSO 2 BET 1
- 2 RSO 2 BET 1
- 3 RSO 4 BET 2
- 4 RSO 0 BET 0
- 5 RSO 0 BET 0
- 6 RSO 1 BET 1
- 7 RSO 0 BET 2
- 8 RSO 0 BET 2
- 9 RSO 0 BET 1
- 10 RSO 0 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 27%, 34% end level, Betis win 39%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 6.1% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 19.5% |
| Draw | 33.9% |
| Betis by 1 | 23.9% |
| Betis by 2 | 10.8% |
| Betis by 3+ | 4.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 11 | 2 | 0.54 | +1.46 |
 Betis | 8 | 1 | 1.15 | −0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Xabier Prieto Argarate scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 32' | Íñigo Martínez Berridi scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 50' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 52' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Francisco Portillo Soler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% RSO |
| 2 | 17' | Xabier Prieto Argarate scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +22% RSO |
| 3 | 21' | Fabián Ruiz Peña didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% RSO |
| 4 | 32' | Íñigo Martínez Berridi scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +11% RSO |
| 5 | 50' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +6% BET |
| 6 | 52' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +9% RSO |
| 7 | 65' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% RSO |
| 8 | 84' | Bruno González Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 16% · draw 30% · Betis 54%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 27% · draw 34% · Betis 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Eibar 1–2 Málaga Jan 30, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Getafe 0–1 Athletic Jan 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Athletic
- Villarreal 1–0 Granada Jan 30, 2016 · replay 82% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Atlético Jan 30, 2016 · replay 47% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 6–0 Espanyol Jan 31, 2016 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 3–1 Levante Jan 31, 2016 · replay 87% for Sevilla
- Valencia 0–1 Sporting Jan 31, 2016 · replay 32% for Sporting
- Las Palmas 2–1 Celta Jan 31, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Deportivo 2–2 Rayo Feb 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws