Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 1, 2016
Deportivo 2–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Deportivo and Rayo drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 3 of 10, Rayo 5, and 2 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 1.24 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Deportivo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 3, 2 end level, Rayo win 5.
- 1 DEP 2 RAY 1
- 2 DEP 2 RAY 1
- 3 DEP 3 RAY 1
- 4 DEP 4 RAY 4
- 5 DEP 1 RAY 1
- 6 DEP 1 RAY 4
- 7 DEP 0 RAY 2
- 8 DEP 1 RAY 2
- 9 DEP 2 RAY 3
- 10 DEP 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 29%, 24% end level, Rayo win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 3.6% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 8.6% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Rayo by 1 | 23.3% |
| Rayo by 2 | 13.8% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 10.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 17 | 2 | 1.24 | +0.76 |
 Rayo | 7 | 2 | 1.49 | +0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 18' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 22' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.92 |
| 45' | Fayçal Fajr scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +15% RAY |
| 2 | 10' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% RAY |
| 3 | 18' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +20% DEP |
| 4 | 34' | Fayçal Fajr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% RAY |
| 5 | 45' | Fayçal Fajr scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +31% DEP |
| 6 | 51' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% RAY |
| 7 | 80' | Jonathan Javier Rodríguez Portillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% RAY |
| 8 | 84' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 26% · draw 29% · Rayo 45%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 29% · draw 24% · Rayo 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Betis Jan 30, 2016 · replay 44% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 1–2 Málaga Jan 30, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Getafe 0–1 Athletic Jan 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Athletic
- Villarreal 1–0 Granada Jan 30, 2016 · replay 82% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Atlético Jan 30, 2016 · replay 47% for Barcelona
- Real Madrid 6–0 Espanyol Jan 31, 2016 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 3–1 Levante Jan 31, 2016 · replay 87% for Sevilla
- Valencia 0–1 Sporting Jan 31, 2016 · replay 32% for Sporting
- Las Palmas 2–1 Celta Jan 31, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas