Matchday 22 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 30, 2016
Barcelona 2–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Atlético 2–1, but the replays call it even: Barcelona win 3 of 10, Atlético 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.6 expected goals to 0.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 2 | 0.57 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Barcelona lucky · −53 Atlético
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 3, 4 end level, Atlético win 3.
- 1 BAR 1 ATM 0
- 2 BAR 1 ATM 0
- 3 BAR 2 ATM 0
- 4 BAR 1 ATM 1
- 5 BAR 0 ATM 0
- 6 BAR 0 ATM 0
- 7 BAR 0 ATM 0
- 8 BAR 0 ATM 2
- 9 BAR 0 ATM 1
- 10 BAR 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 27%, 41% end level, Atlético win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 5.5% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 20.3% |
| Draw | 40.8% |
| Atlético by 1 | 23.1% |
| Atlético by 2 | 7.1% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 10 | 2 | 0.57 | +1.43 |
 Atlético | 7 | 1 | 0.68 | +0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 29' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 37' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 55' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +22% ATM |
| 2 | 16' | Daniel Alves da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 3 | 28' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% ATM |
| 4 | 29' | The game turned hereLionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +24% BAR |
| 5 | 36' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BAR |
| 6 | 37' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +24% BAR |
| 7 | 55' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +12% BAR |
| 8 | 56' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 27% · draw 38% · Atlético 35%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 27% · draw 41% · Atlético 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2015-16
- Real Sociedad 2–1 Betis Jan 30, 2016 · replay 44% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 1–2 Málaga Jan 30, 2016 · replay 68% for Málaga
- Getafe 0–1 Athletic Jan 30, 2016 · replay 58% for Athletic
- Villarreal 1–0 Granada Jan 30, 2016 · replay 82% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 6–0 Espanyol Jan 31, 2016 · replay 86% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 3–1 Levante Jan 31, 2016 · replay 87% for Sevilla
- Valencia 0–1 Sporting Jan 31, 2016 · replay 32% for Sporting
- Las Palmas 2–1 Celta Jan 31, 2016 · replay 71% for Las Palmas
- Deportivo 2–2 Rayo Feb 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws