Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 12, 2016
Sporting 2–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Sporting and Rayo drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sporting win 5 of 10, Rayo 3, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.7 expected goals to 1.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 2 | 1.73 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −11 Sporting about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 5, 2 end level, Rayo win 3.
- 1 SPO 2 RAY 1
- 2 SPO 1 RAY 0
- 3 SPO 3 RAY 1
- 4 SPO 2 RAY 0
- 5 SPO 3 RAY 0
- 6 SPO 0 RAY 0
- 7 SPO 2 RAY 2
- 8 SPO 0 RAY 2
- 9 SPO 1 RAY 2
- 10 SPO 1 RAY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 50%, 22% end level, Rayo win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 13.2% |
| Sporting by 2 | 15.7% |
| Sporting by 1 | 21.1% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Rayo by 1 | 15.8% |
| Rayo by 2 | 8.1% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 4.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 11 | 2 | 1.73 | +0.27 |
 Rayo | 16 | 2 | 1.51 | +0.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 38' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.58 |
| 45' | Alen Halilović scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 57' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +14% SPO |
| 2 | 38' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +12% RAY |
| 3 | 45' | Alen Halilović scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +15% SPO |
| 4 | 54' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% SPO |
| 5 | 54' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +7% SPO |
| 6 | 57' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +27% RAY |
| 7 | 59' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RAY |
| 8 | 91' | Roberto Román Triguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 43% · draw 25% · Rayo 32%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 50% · draw 22% · Rayo 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 24 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Rayo
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