Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 14, 2016
Getafe 0–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Getafe 1–0, and the replays lean Atlético’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Getafe, 3 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 0 | 0.44 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.94 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Atlético lucky · −32 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 2, 3 end level, Atlético win 5.
- 1 GET 1 ATM 0
- 2 GET 1 ATM 0
- 3 GET 1 ATM 1
- 4 GET 1 ATM 1
- 5 GET 1 ATM 1
- 6 GET 0 ATM 3
- 7 GET 0 ATM 2
- 8 GET 0 ATM 1
- 9 GET 0 ATM 1
- 10 GET 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 15%, 34% end level, Atlético win 51%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Getafe by 2 | 2.3% |
| Getafe by 1 | 12.8% |
| Draw | 33.6% |
| Atlético by 1 | 29.0% |
| Atlético by 2 | 15.8% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 12 | 0 | 0.44 | −0.44 |
 Atlético | 6 | 1 | 0.94 | +0.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.65 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shotFinishing · 65% chance | +9% ATM |
| 2 | 8' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% ATM |
| 3 | 12' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +3% GET |
| 4 | 19' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ATM |
| 5 | 53' | Moisés Gómez Bordonado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ATM |
| 6 | 65' | Santiago Vergini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ATM |
| 7 | 80' | Wanderson Maciel Sousa Campos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ATM |
| 8 | 88' | Wanderson Maciel Sousa Campos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 14% · draw 32% · Atlético 54%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 15% · draw 34% · Atlético 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–2 Rayo Feb 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Villarreal 1–0 Málaga Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Feb 13, 2016 · replay 70% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–1 Espanyol Feb 13, 2016 · replay 13% for Valencia
- Deportivo 2–2 Betis Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Eibar 2–0 Levante Feb 14, 2016 · replay 96% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 14, 2016 · replay 79% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Granada Feb 14, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Barcelona 6–1 Celta Feb 14, 2016 · replay 95% for Barcelona