Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 14, 2016
Sevilla 2–0 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Las Palmas 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sevilla win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 2 | 1.56 |
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.57 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Sevilla about even · −21 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 7, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 1.
- 1 SEV 1 LPA 0
- 2 SEV 1 LPA 0
- 3 SEV 3 LPA 2
- 4 SEV 2 LPA 0
- 5 SEV 2 LPA 0
- 6 SEV 3 LPA 0
- 7 SEV 4 LPA 0
- 8 SEV 1 LPA 1
- 9 SEV 3 LPA 3
- 10 SEV 0 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 69%, 20% end level, Las Palmas win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 20.2% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 21.9% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 27.0% |
| Draw | 20.3% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 8.0% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 2.3% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 9 | 2 | 1.56 | +0.44 |
 Las Palmas | 11 | 0 | 0.57 | −0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 68' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 74' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shot | 0.88 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | José Antonio Reyes Calderón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LPA |
| 2 | 24' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SEV |
| 3 | 29' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SEV |
| 4 | 39' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SEV |
| 5 | 67' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% LPA |
| 6 | 68' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +34% SEV |
| 7 | 71' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% SEV |
| 8 | 74' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 91% · draw 7% · Las Palmas 2%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 69% · draw 20% · Las Palmas 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 24 matches, 2015-16 · Sevilla · Las Palmas
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