Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Villarreal 1–0 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Málaga 1–0, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 5 wins in 10, 1 for Málaga, 4 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 | 0.79 |
 Málaga | 0 | 0.42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Villarreal lucky · −33 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 5, 4 end level, Málaga win 1.
- 1 VIL 1 MAL 0
- 2 VIL 1 MAL 0
- 3 VIL 1 MAL 0
- 4 VIL 2 MAL 0
- 5 VIL 3 MAL 0
- 6 VIL 0 MAL 0
- 7 VIL 0 MAL 0
- 8 VIL 0 MAL 0
- 9 VIL 1 MAL 1
- 10 VIL 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 48%, 37% end level, Málaga win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 5.7% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 14.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 28.7% |
| Draw | 37.0% |
| Málaga by 1 | 12.0% |
| Málaga by 2 | 2.3% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 12 | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 |
 Málaga | 7 | 0 | 0.42 | −0.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MAL |
| 2 | 12' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% MAL |
| 3 | 17' | Roberto Soldado Rillo scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +22% VIL |
| 4 | 20' | Jonathan dos Santos Ramírez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +2% MAL |
| 5 | 32' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% VIL |
| 6 | 51' | Fernando Damián Tissone didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% VIL |
| 7 | 67' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% VIL |
| 8 | 78' | Jonathan dos Santos Ramírez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 42% · draw 39% · Málaga 19%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 48% · draw 37% · Málaga 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–2 Rayo Feb 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Feb 13, 2016 · replay 70% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–1 Espanyol Feb 13, 2016 · replay 13% for Valencia
- Deportivo 2–2 Betis Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Eibar 2–0 Levante Feb 14, 2016 · replay 96% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 14, 2016 · replay 79% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Granada Feb 14, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Getafe 0–1 Atlético Feb 14, 2016 · replay 68% for Atlético
- Barcelona 6–1 Celta Feb 14, 2016 · replay 95% for Barcelona