Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Athletic 4–2, and the replays lean Real Madrid’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Athletic, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.9 expected goals to 1.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 4 | 1.87 |
 Athletic Club | 2 | 1.68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Real Madrid lucky · −30 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 6, 2 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 RMA 3 ATH 2
- 2 RMA 1 ATH 0
- 3 RMA 3 ATH 1
- 4 RMA 2 ATH 0
- 5 RMA 3 ATH 0
- 6 RMA 4 ATH 0
- 7 RMA 0 ATH 0
- 8 RMA 2 ATH 2
- 9 RMA 3 ATH 5
- 10 RMA 2 ATH 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 61%, 18% end level, Athletic win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 21.5% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 17.8% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 21.8% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Athletic by 1 | 11.8% |
| Athletic by 2 | 5.5% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 19 | 4 | 1.87 | +2.13 |
 Athletic | 11 | 2 | 1.68 | +0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 9' | Javier Eraso Goñi scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 36' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 44' | Toni Kroos scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 67' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 86' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 87' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 89' | Gorka Elustondo Urkola scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +19% RMA |
| 2 | 9' | Javier Eraso Goñi scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +11% ATH |
| 3 | 18' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RMA |
| 4 | 31' | James David Rodríguez Rubio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% ATH |
| 5 | 33' | Óscar de Marcos Arana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% RMA |
| 6 | 34' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% RMA |
| 7 | 36' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +26% RMA |
| 8 | 44' | Toni Kroos scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +9% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 65% · draw 18% · Athletic 18%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 61% · draw 18% · Athletic 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 70% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–2 Rayo Feb 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Villarreal 1–0 Málaga Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–1 Espanyol Feb 13, 2016 · replay 13% for Valencia
- Deportivo 2–2 Betis Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Eibar 2–0 Levante Feb 14, 2016 · replay 96% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 14, 2016 · replay 79% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Granada Feb 14, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Getafe 0–1 Atlético Feb 14, 2016 · replay 68% for Atlético
- Barcelona 6–1 Celta Feb 14, 2016 · replay 95% for Barcelona