Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 14, 2016
Eibar 2–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Levante 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Eibar win 9 of 10. Eibar made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 2 | 3.26 |
 Levante | 0 | 0.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Eibar about even · −4 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 9, 0 end level, Levante win 1.
- 1 EIB 2 LEV 1
- 2 EIB 2 LEV 0
- 3 EIB 2 LEV 0
- 4 EIB 4 LEV 1
- 5 EIB 4 LEV 1
- 6 EIB 4 LEV 0
- 7 EIB 5 LEV 0
- 8 EIB 5 LEV 0
- 9 EIB 6 LEV 0
- 10 EIB 1 LEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 94%, 5% end level, Levante win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 66.1% |
| Eibar by 2 | 16.5% |
| Eibar by 1 | 10.9% |
| Draw | 4.8% |
| Levante by 1 | 1.4% |
| Levante by 2 | 0.2% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 17 | 2 | 3.26 | −1.26 |
 Levante | 8 | 0 | 0.65 | −0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 36' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.55 |
| 56' | Manuel Castellano Castro didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 57' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shot | 0.59 |
| 57' | Adrián González Morales scored from a shot | 0.77 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% EIB |
| 2 | 18' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LEV |
| 3 | 33' | Jon Ansotegi Gorostola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LEV |
| 4 | 36' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +12% EIB |
| 5 | 56' | Manuel Castellano Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +4% LEV |
| 6 | 57' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +6% LEV |
| 7 | 57' | Adrián González Morales scored from a shotFinishing · 77% chance | +2% EIB |
| 8 | 61' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +1% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 97% · draw 2% · Levante 1%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 94% · draw 5% · Levante 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 24 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Levante
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