Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Valencia 2–1 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Espanyol 2–1, a result the replays rarely give: Espanyol win 8 of 10, Valencia only 1, 1 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 1.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Valencia very lucky · −87 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 1, 1 ends level, Espanyol win 8.
- 1 VAL 3 ESP 1
- 2 VAL 1 ESP 1
- 3 VAL 0 ESP 6
- 4 VAL 0 ESP 4
- 5 VAL 0 ESP 4
- 6 VAL 2 ESP 5
- 7 VAL 2 ESP 5
- 8 VAL 1 ESP 3
- 9 VAL 4 ESP 5
- 10 VAL 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 8%, 10% end level, Espanyol win 82%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Valencia by 2 | 2.4% |
| Valencia by 1 | 5.0% |
| Draw | 10.0% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 16.8% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 18.2% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 46.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 18 | 2 | 1.31 | +0.69 |
 Espanyol | 20 | 1 | 3.53 | −2.53 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
| 4' | Mamadou Sylla Diallo didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 51' | Óscar Esau Duarte Gaitán scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 56' | Óscar Esau Duarte Gaitán didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 56' | Papa Kouly Diop didn’t score from a shot | 0.69 |
| 70' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 75' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shot | 0.29 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +12% VAL |
| 2 | 4' | Mamadou Sylla Diallo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +12% VAL |
| 3 | 51' | Óscar Esau Duarte Gaitán scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +24% ESP |
| 4 | 56' | Óscar Esau Duarte Gaitán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +7% VAL |
| 5 | 56' | Papa Kouly Diop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 69% chance | +10% VAL |
| 6 | 70' | The game turned hereÁlvaro Negredo Sánchez scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +35% VAL |
| 7 | 75' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +29% VAL |
| 8 | 89' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +13% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 7% · draw 11% · Espanyol 82%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.4 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 8% · draw 10% · Espanyol 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 13% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–2 Rayo Feb 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Villarreal 1–0 Málaga Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Feb 13, 2016 · replay 70% for Real Madrid
- Deportivo 2–2 Betis Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Eibar 2–0 Levante Feb 14, 2016 · replay 96% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 14, 2016 · replay 79% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Granada Feb 14, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Getafe 0–1 Atlético Feb 14, 2016 · replay 68% for Atlético
- Barcelona 6–1 Celta Feb 14, 2016 · replay 95% for Barcelona