Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Deportivo 2–2 Betis: who deserved to win?
Deportivo and Betis drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 9 of 10, Betis 0, and 1 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 3.14 |
 Real Betis | 2 | 0.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −43 Deportivo unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 9, 1 ends level, Betis win 0.
- 1 DEP 1 BET 0
- 2 DEP 1 BET 0
- 3 DEP 2 BET 0
- 4 DEP 3 BET 1
- 5 DEP 4 BET 1
- 6 DEP 3 BET 0
- 7 DEP 3 BET 0
- 8 DEP 4 BET 0
- 9 DEP 7 BET 1
- 10 DEP 0 BET 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 88%, 9% end level, Betis win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 48.3% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 22.6% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 17.6% |
| Draw | 9.1% |
| Betis by 1 | 2.2% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.2% |
| Betis by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 26 | 2 | 3.14 | −1.14 |
 Betis | 4 | 2 | 0.34 | +1.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Alejandro Bergantiños García scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 19' | Charly Musonda Junior scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 37' | Juan Manuel Vargas Risco scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 50' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
| 50' | Fayçal Fajr scored from a shot | 0.49 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 22% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Alejandro Bergantiños García scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +20% DEP |
| 2 | 19' | Charly Musonda Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +20% BET |
| 3 | 33' | Rubén Gracia Calmache didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% BET |
| 4 | 37' | Juan Manuel Vargas Risco scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +29% BET |
| 5 | 50' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +19% BET |
| 6 | 50' | Fayçal Fajr scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +17% DEP |
| 7 | 69' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% BET |
| 8 | 89' | Oriol Riera Magem didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +6% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 92% · draw 6% · Betis 2%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 88% · draw 9% · Betis 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–2 Rayo Feb 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Villarreal 1–0 Málaga Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Feb 13, 2016 · replay 70% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–1 Espanyol Feb 13, 2016 · replay 13% for Valencia
- Eibar 2–0 Levante Feb 14, 2016 · replay 96% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 14, 2016 · replay 79% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Granada Feb 14, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Getafe 0–1 Atlético Feb 14, 2016 · replay 68% for Atlético
- Barcelona 6–1 Celta Feb 14, 2016 · replay 95% for Barcelona