Matchday 24 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 14, 2016
Barcelona 6–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Celta 6–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10. Barcelona made the better chances: 4.2 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 6 | 4.18 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Barcelona about even · −5 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 9, 0 end level, Celta win 1.
- 1 BAR 4 CEL 2
- 2 BAR 6 CEL 3
- 3 BAR 4 CEL 1
- 4 BAR 4 CEL 0
- 5 BAR 6 CEL 1
- 6 BAR 6 CEL 1
- 7 BAR 6 CEL 0
- 8 BAR 8 CEL 1
- 9 BAR 9 CEL 0
- 10 BAR 3 CEL 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 93%, 5% end level, Celta win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 5.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 73.2% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 12.3% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 7.6% |
| Draw | 4.6% |
| Celta by 1 | 1.4% |
| Celta by 2 | 0.7% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 20 (1 pen) | 6 | 4.18 | +1.82 |
 Celta | 10 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.34 | −0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kick | 0.03 |
| 38' | John Guidetti scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 58' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 74' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.91 |
| 80' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 81' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 83' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 90' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% CEL |
| 2 | 24' | Carles Planas Antolínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% BAR |
| 3 | 27' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kickFinishing · 3% chance | +24% BAR |
| 4 | 38' | John Guidetti scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% CEL |
| 5 | 46' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% CEL |
| 6 | 55' | Andrés Iniesta Luján didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% CEL |
| 7 | 58' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +24% BAR |
| 8 | 72' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 99% · draw 1% · Celta 0%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 5
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 93% · draw 5% · Celta 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- Sporting 2–2 Rayo Feb 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Villarreal 1–0 Málaga Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Villarreal
- Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Feb 13, 2016 · replay 70% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–1 Espanyol Feb 13, 2016 · replay 13% for Valencia
- Deportivo 2–2 Betis Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 9% draws
- Eibar 2–0 Levante Feb 14, 2016 · replay 96% for Eibar
- Sevilla 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 14, 2016 · replay 79% for Sevilla
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Granada Feb 14, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Getafe 0–1 Atlético Feb 14, 2016 · replay 68% for Atlético