Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 26, 2016
Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Eibar 1–0, and the replays lean Las Palmas’s way: 5 wins in 10, 1 for Eibar, 4 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 0 | 0.31 |
 Las Palmas | 1 | 0.71 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Las Palmas lucky · −35 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 1, 4 end level, Las Palmas win 5.
- 1 EIB 1 LPA 0
- 2 EIB 1 LPA 1
- 3 EIB 0 LPA 0
- 4 EIB 0 LPA 0
- 5 EIB 0 LPA 0
- 6 EIB 0 LPA 2
- 7 EIB 1 LPA 3
- 8 EIB 0 LPA 1
- 9 EIB 1 LPA 2
- 10 EIB 0 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 14%, 42% end level, Las Palmas win 44%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Eibar by 2 | 1.9% |
| Eibar by 1 | 12.4% |
| Draw | 41.6% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 29.2% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 10.6% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 10 | 0 | 0.31 | −0.31 |
 Las Palmas | 12 | 1 | 0.71 | +0.29 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Pedro Bigas Rigo scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +7% EIB |
| 2 | 22' | Aythami Artiles Oliva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% EIB |
| 3 | 44' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% EIB |
| 4 | 44' | Nabil El Zhar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% EIB |
| 5 | 45' | The game turned herePedro Bigas Rigo scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +31% LPA |
| 6 | 50' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% LPA |
| 7 | 73' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LPA |
| 8 | 74' | Adrián González Morales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 15% · draw 42% · Las Palmas 43%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 14% · draw 42% · Las Palmas 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Las Palmas
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