Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
Getafe 0–1 Celta: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Getafe 1–0, and the replays lean Celta’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Getafe, 3 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 0 | 0.67 |
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.04 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Celta lucky · −38 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 2, 3 end level, Celta win 5.
- 1 GET 1 CEL 0
- 2 GET 3 CEL 1
- 3 GET 0 CEL 0
- 4 GET 0 CEL 0
- 5 GET 0 CEL 0
- 6 GET 1 CEL 4
- 7 GET 0 CEL 2
- 8 GET 1 CEL 2
- 9 GET 1 CEL 2
- 10 GET 1 CEL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 23%, 31% end level, Celta win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Getafe by 2 | 4.9% |
| Getafe by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 30.8% |
| Celta by 1 | 27.0% |
| Celta by 2 | 12.7% |
| Celta by 3+ | 6.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 14 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
 Celta | 9 | 1 | 1.04 | −0.04 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 70' | Manuel Agudo Durán scored from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +7% GET |
| 2 | 45' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% GET |
| 3 | 61' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% CEL |
| 4 | 69' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% GET |
| 5 | 70' | The game turned hereManuel Agudo Durán scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +24% CEL |
| 6 | 78' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CEL |
| 7 | 81' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% CEL |
| 8 | 89' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 22% · draw 31% · Celta 47%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 23% · draw 31% · Celta 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas Feb 26, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Betis 2–2 Rayo Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sporting 2–4 Espanyol Feb 27, 2016 · replay 32% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–1 Atlético Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Málaga Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Valencia 0–3 Athletic Feb 28, 2016 · replay 61% for Athletic
- Deportivo 0–1 Granada Feb 28, 2016 · replay 65% for Granada
- Villarreal 3–0 Levante Feb 28, 2016 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Sevilla Feb 28, 2016 · replay 68% for Barcelona