Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
Sporting 2–4 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Sporting 4–2, but the replays lean toward Sporting: 6 wins in 10 to Espanyol’s 2, 2 end level. Sporting made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.1. An own goal helped Espanyol.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 2 | 2.17 |
 Espanyol | 4 | 1.11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Espanyol very lucky · −68 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 6, 2 end level, Espanyol win 2.
- 1 SPO 2 ESP 1
- 2 SPO 2 ESP 1
- 3 SPO 1 ESP 0
- 4 SPO 3 ESP 1
- 5 SPO 3 ESP 0
- 6 SPO 7 ESP 3
- 7 SPO 2 ESP 2
- 8 SPO 2 ESP 2
- 9 SPO 0 ESP 2
- 10 SPO 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 57%, 22% end level, Espanyol win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 15.3% |
| Sporting by 2 | 16.7% |
| Sporting by 1 | 24.5% |
| Draw | 22.3% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 13.0% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 5.7% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 14 | 2 | 2.17 | −0.17 |
 Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1.11 | +1.89 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 19' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 40' | Jorge Franco Alviz scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 47' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 57' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 61' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 62' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 70' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +15% SPO |
| 2 | 40' | Jorge Franco Alviz scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +19% ESP |
| 3 | 47' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +17% ESP |
| 4 | 57' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +14% ESP |
| 5 | 61' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +10% SPO |
| 6 | 62' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +15% ESP |
| 7 | 70' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +21% ESP |
| 8 | 79' | Own goal by nan, for EspanyolOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +7% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 64% · draw 20% · Espanyol 16%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 57% · draw 22% · Espanyol 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Espanyol
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