Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
Real Sociedad 1–1 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad and Málaga drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 2 of 10, Málaga 5, and 3 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 0.88 |
 Málaga | 1 | 1.26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Real Sociedad about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 2, 3 end level, Málaga win 5.
- 1 RSO 1 MAL 0
- 2 RSO 2 MAL 0
- 3 RSO 1 MAL 1
- 4 RSO 1 MAL 1
- 5 RSO 1 MAL 1
- 6 RSO 0 MAL 3
- 7 RSO 0 MAL 2
- 8 RSO 0 MAL 1
- 9 RSO 0 MAL 1
- 10 RSO 1 MAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 24%, 28% end level, Málaga win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 1.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 6.2% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 15.7% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Málaga by 1 | 25.1% |
| Málaga by 2 | 14.9% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 7.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 11 | 1 | 0.88 | +0.12 |
 Málaga | 8 | 1 | 1.26 | −0.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 55' | Duje Čop scored from a shot | 0.91 |
| 80' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shot | 0.14 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% MAL |
| 2 | 31' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RSO |
| 3 | 48' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% RSO |
| 4 | 52' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MAL |
| 5 | 55' | Duje Čop scored from a shotFinishing · 91% chance | +3% MAL |
| 6 | 67' | Diego Antonio Reyes Rosales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAL |
| 7 | 75' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% MAL |
| 8 | 80' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +38% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 20% · draw 31% · Málaga 49%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 24% · draw 28% · Málaga 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas Feb 26, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Getafe 0–1 Celta Feb 27, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Betis 2–2 Rayo Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sporting 2–4 Espanyol Feb 27, 2016 · replay 32% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–1 Atlético Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for Atlético
- Valencia 0–3 Athletic Feb 28, 2016 · replay 61% for Athletic
- Deportivo 0–1 Granada Feb 28, 2016 · replay 65% for Granada
- Villarreal 3–0 Levante Feb 28, 2016 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Sevilla Feb 28, 2016 · replay 68% for Barcelona