Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 28, 2016
Villarreal 3–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Levante 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Villarreal win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 3 | 1.07 |
 Levante | 0 | 0.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Villarreal about even · −25 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 6, 2 end level, Levante win 2.
- 1 VIL 3 LEV 2
- 2 VIL 2 LEV 1
- 3 VIL 1 LEV 0
- 4 VIL 3 LEV 1
- 5 VIL 2 LEV 0
- 6 VIL 3 LEV 0
- 7 VIL 0 LEV 0
- 8 VIL 3 LEV 3
- 9 VIL 0 LEV 1
- 10 VIL 1 LEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 63%, 24% end level, Levante win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 13.5% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 21.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 28.8% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Levante by 1 | 9.6% |
| Levante by 2 | 2.4% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 9 | 3 | 1.07 | +1.93 |
 Levante | 8 | 0 | 0.69 | −0.69 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 29' | Samuel Castillejo Azuaga scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 31' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 47' | Adrián López Álvarez scored from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +23% VIL |
| 2 | 15' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% VIL |
| 3 | 25' | Samuel Castillejo Azuaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% LEV |
| 4 | 29' | Samuel Castillejo Azuaga scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +11% VIL |
| 5 | 31' | Leonardo Carrilho Baptistão didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +1% LEV |
| 6 | 36' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% VIL |
| 7 | 37' | Carl Medjani didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% VIL |
| 8 | 47' | Adrián López Álvarez scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +2% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 78% · draw 16% · Levante 6%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 63% · draw 24% · Levante 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas Feb 26, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Getafe 0–1 Celta Feb 27, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Betis 2–2 Rayo Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sporting 2–4 Espanyol Feb 27, 2016 · replay 32% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–1 Atlético Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Málaga Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Valencia 0–3 Athletic Feb 28, 2016 · replay 61% for Athletic
- Deportivo 0–1 Granada Feb 28, 2016 · replay 65% for Granada
- Barcelona 2–1 Sevilla Feb 28, 2016 · replay 68% for Barcelona