Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
Real Madrid 0–1 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Real Madrid 1–0, but the replays call it even: Atlético win 4 of 10, Real Madrid 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 0 | 0.80 |
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Atlético lucky · −48 Real Madrid
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 3, 3 end level, Atlético win 4.
- 1 RMA 2 ATM 1
- 2 RMA 1 ATM 0
- 3 RMA 2 ATM 0
- 4 RMA 1 ATM 1
- 5 RMA 1 ATM 1
- 6 RMA 0 ATM 0
- 7 RMA 2 ATM 4
- 8 RMA 1 ATM 2
- 9 RMA 0 ATM 1
- 10 RMA 1 ATM 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 31%, 35% end level, Atlético win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 2.2% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 7.2% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 21.3% |
| Draw | 34.8% |
| Atlético by 1 | 22.8% |
| Atlético by 2 | 9.1% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 15 | 0 | 0.80 | −0.80 |
 Atlético | 10 | 1 | 0.75 | +0.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 52' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | José María Giménez de Vargas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% RMA |
| 2 | 42' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% RMA |
| 3 | 47' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% ATM |
| 4 | 52' | The game turned hereAntoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +31% ATM |
| 5 | 67' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% ATM |
| 6 | 70' | Borja Mayoral Moya didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ATM |
| 7 | 83' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ATM |
| 8 | 87' | Danilo Luiz da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 33% · draw 35% · Atlético 32%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 31% · draw 35% · Atlético 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas Feb 26, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Getafe 0–1 Celta Feb 27, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Betis 2–2 Rayo Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sporting 2–4 Espanyol Feb 27, 2016 · replay 32% for Espanyol
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Málaga Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Valencia 0–3 Athletic Feb 28, 2016 · replay 61% for Athletic
- Deportivo 0–1 Granada Feb 28, 2016 · replay 65% for Granada
- Villarreal 3–0 Levante Feb 28, 2016 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Sevilla Feb 28, 2016 · replay 68% for Barcelona