Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 28, 2016
Valencia 0–3 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Valencia 3–0, and the replays lean Athletic’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Valencia, 2 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 0 | 1.23 |
 Athletic Club | 3 | 1.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Athletic lucky · −39 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 3, 2 end level, Athletic win 5.
- 1 VAL 3 ATH 2
- 2 VAL 1 ATH 0
- 3 VAL 3 ATH 1
- 4 VAL 0 ATH 0
- 5 VAL 2 ATH 2
- 6 VAL 2 ATH 6
- 7 VAL 0 ATH 2
- 8 VAL 0 ATH 2
- 9 VAL 0 ATH 1
- 10 VAL 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 26%, 25% end level, Athletic win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 3.2% |
| Valencia by 2 | 7.3% |
| Valencia by 1 | 16.0% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Athletic by 1 | 22.5% |
| Athletic by 2 | 15.2% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 11.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 9 | 0 | 1.23 | −1.23 |
 Athletic | 13 | 3 | 1.54 | +1.46 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 72' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 76' | Iker Muniain Goñi scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 79' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% ATH |
| 2 | 21' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +7% ATH |
| 3 | 29' | Iker Muniain Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% VAL |
| 4 | 53' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% VAL |
| 5 | 61' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +10% ATH |
| 6 | 71' | Xabier Etxeita Gorritxategi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% VAL |
| 7 | 72' | The game turned hereSabin Merino Zuloaga scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +35% ATH |
| 8 | 76' | Iker Muniain Goñi scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +5% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 11% · draw 18% · Athletic 71%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 26% · draw 25% · Athletic 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas Feb 26, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Getafe 0–1 Celta Feb 27, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Betis 2–2 Rayo Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sporting 2–4 Espanyol Feb 27, 2016 · replay 32% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–1 Atlético Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Málaga Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Deportivo 0–1 Granada Feb 28, 2016 · replay 65% for Granada
- Villarreal 3–0 Levante Feb 28, 2016 · replay 75% for Villarreal
- Barcelona 2–1 Sevilla Feb 28, 2016 · replay 68% for Barcelona