Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 28, 2016
Barcelona 2–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Sevilla 2–1, and the replays lean Barcelona’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Sevilla, 2 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 1.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Barcelona lucky · −32 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 6, 2 end level, Sevilla win 2.
- 1 BAR 2 SEV 1
- 2 BAR 2 SEV 1
- 3 BAR 2 SEV 0
- 4 BAR 3 SEV 1
- 5 BAR 4 SEV 1
- 6 BAR 5 SEV 1
- 7 BAR 4 SEV 4
- 8 BAR 1 SEV 1
- 9 BAR 2 SEV 4
- 10 BAR 2 SEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 58%, 20% end level, Sevilla win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 19.1% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 17.0% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 22.1% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 12.3% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 6.1% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 15 | 2 | 2.06 | −0.06 |
 Sevilla | 12 | 1 | 1.50 | −0.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Timothée Kolodziejczak didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 19' | Víctor Machín Pérez scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 30' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
| 47' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu scored from a shot | 0.60 |
| 72' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Timothée Kolodziejczak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +10% BAR |
| 2 | 19' | Víctor Machín Pérez scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +24% SEV |
| 3 | 30' | The game turned hereLionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +27% BAR |
| 4 | 34' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% BAR |
| 5 | 47' | Gerard Piqué Bernabéu scored from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +12% BAR |
| 6 | 50' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% BAR |
| 7 | 72' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% BAR |
| 8 | 78' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 53% · draw 22% · Sevilla 25%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 58% · draw 20% · Sevilla 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Eibar 0–1 Las Palmas Feb 26, 2016 · replay 65% for Las Palmas
- Getafe 0–1 Celta Feb 27, 2016 · replay 62% for Celta
- Betis 2–2 Rayo Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sporting 2–4 Espanyol Feb 27, 2016 · replay 32% for Espanyol
- Real Madrid 0–1 Atlético Feb 27, 2016 · replay 52% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Málaga Feb 27, 2016 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Valencia 0–3 Athletic Feb 28, 2016 · replay 61% for Athletic
- Deportivo 0–1 Granada Feb 28, 2016 · replay 65% for Granada
- Villarreal 3–0 Levante Feb 28, 2016 · replay 75% for Villarreal