Matchday 26 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 27, 2016
Betis 2–2 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Betis and Rayo drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Betis win 8 of 10, Rayo 1, and 1 end level. Betis made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 2 | 2.16 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −33 Betis unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 8, 1 ends level, Rayo win 1.
- 1 BET 2 RAY 1
- 2 BET 2 RAY 1
- 3 BET 2 RAY 0
- 4 BET 3 RAY 1
- 5 BET 3 RAY 0
- 6 BET 3 RAY 0
- 7 BET 4 RAY 0
- 8 BET 5 RAY 0
- 9 BET 1 RAY 1
- 10 BET 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 75%, 14% end level, Rayo win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 33.6% |
| Betis by 2 | 21.5% |
| Betis by 1 | 20.3% |
| Draw | 14.5% |
| Rayo by 1 | 7.1% |
| Rayo by 2 | 2.4% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 20 | 2 | 2.16 | −0.16 |
 Rayo | 11 | 2 | 0.99 | +1.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 27' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.78 |
| 39' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 47' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 50' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves scored from a shot | 0.29 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% BET |
| 2 | 13' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +20% BET |
| 3 | 47' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +9% RAY |
| 4 | 50' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +21% RAY |
| 5 | 60' | Leandro Damião da Silva dos Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RAY |
| 6 | 74' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +7% BET |
| 7 | 89' | Álvaro Cejudo Carmona didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% RAY |
| 8 | 92' | Daniel Ceballos Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 67% · draw 20% · Rayo 12%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 75% · draw 14% · Rayo 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
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