Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 1, 2016
Las Palmas 4–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Getafe 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Las Palmas win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 4 | 2.21 |
 Getafe | 0 | 0.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Las Palmas about even · −7 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 9, 1 ends level, Getafe win 0.
- 1 LPA 1 GET 0
- 2 LPA 3 GET 2
- 3 LPA 2 GET 0
- 4 LPA 2 GET 0
- 5 LPA 3 GET 0
- 6 LPA 3 GET 0
- 7 LPA 4 GET 0
- 8 LPA 4 GET 0
- 9 LPA 5 GET 0
- 10 LPA 1 GET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 88%, 9% end level, Getafe win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 49.4% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 21.9% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 16.9% |
| Draw | 9.0% |
| Getafe by 1 | 2.1% |
| Getafe by 2 | 0.7% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 12 (1 pen) | 4 | 2.21 | +1.79 |
 Getafe | 10 | 0 | 0.52 | −0.52 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 27' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 48' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shot | 0.49 |
| 82' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +19% LPA |
| 2 | 10' | Mehdi Lacen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% LPA |
| 3 | 21' | Nabil El Zhar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% GET |
| 4 | 26' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% GET |
| 5 | 27' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% LPA |
| 6 | 39' | Álvaro Medrán Just didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% LPA |
| 7 | 42' | Abdoul Karim Yoda didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% LPA |
| 8 | 48' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +1% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 96% · draw 4% · Getafe 1%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 88% · draw 9% · Getafe 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Getafe
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Atlético 3–0 Real Sociedad Mar 1, 2016 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Celta 0–0 Villarreal Mar 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Sevilla 1–0 Eibar Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Málaga 1–2 Valencia Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Athletic 4–1 Deportivo Mar 2, 2016 · replay 90% for Athletic
- Levante 1–3 Real Madrid Mar 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Real Madrid
- Granada 2–0 Sporting Mar 3, 2016 · replay 92% for Granada
- Espanyol 0–3 Betis Mar 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Betis
- Rayo 1–5 Barcelona Mar 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona