luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 2, 2016

Celta 0–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?

Celta and Villarreal drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Celta win 3 of 10, Villarreal 3, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.6 expected goals to 0.7).

Full time

GoalsxG
Celta Vigo 0 0.64
Villarreal 0 0.65

March 2, 2016 · Abanca-Balaídos · Referee: Santiago Jaime Latre

Luck index 0 Celta about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Celta win 3, 4 end level, Villarreal win 3.

  1. 1 CEL 1 VIL 0
  2. 2 CEL 1 VIL 0
  3. 3 CEL 2 VIL 0
  4. 4 CEL 1 VIL 1
  5. 5 CEL 1 VIL 1
  6. 6 CEL 0 VIL 0
  7. 7 CEL 1 VIL 1
  8. 8 CEL 0 VIL 2
  9. 9 CEL 0 VIL 1
  10. 10 CEL 0 VIL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Celta win 30%, 39% end level, Villarreal win 30%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Celta by 3+2.0%
Celta by 27.6%
Celta by 120.9%
Draw39.5%
Villarreal by 121.3%
Villarreal by 26.9%
Villarreal by 3+1.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Celta1100.64−0.64
Villarreal600.65−0.65

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
15'John Guidetti didn’t score from a shot0.30

When it happened

Celta’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Celta was ahead in it, below while Villarreal was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 13' Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +5% CEL
2 15' John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance +7% VIL
3 31' Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +5% CEL
4 38' Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +5% CEL
5 52' Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% CEL
6 60' Marcelo Alfonso Díaz Rojas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% VIL
7 81' Manuel Agudo Durán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% VIL
8 85' Marcelo Alfonso Díaz Rojas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% VIL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Celta 30% · draw 39% · Villarreal 31%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
none
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Celta 30% · draw 39% · Villarreal 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · Celta · Villarreal

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