Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 3, 2016
Granada 2–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Sporting 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Granada win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Granada made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 2 | 2.00 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Granada about even · −8 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 9, 1 ends level, Sporting win 0.
- 1 GRA 1 SPO 0
- 2 GRA 1 SPO 0
- 3 GRA 1 SPO 0
- 4 GRA 2 SPO 0
- 5 GRA 2 SPO 0
- 6 GRA 3 SPO 0
- 7 GRA 3 SPO 0
- 8 GRA 4 SPO 0
- 9 GRA 6 SPO 1
- 10 GRA 0 SPO 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 85%, 13% end level, Sporting win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 35.9% |
| Granada by 2 | 25.3% |
| Granada by 1 | 23.9% |
| Draw | 13.5% |
| Sporting by 1 | 1.2% |
| Sporting by 2 | 0.2% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 14 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
 Sporting | 4 | 0 | 0.10 | −0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 71' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 92' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shot | 0.64 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% SPO |
| 2 | 22' | Hugo Miguel Almeida Costa Lopes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SPO |
| 3 | 34' | Ricardo Miguel Moreira da Costa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% SPO |
| 4 | 40' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SPO |
| 5 | 44' | Luis Hernández Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% GRA |
| 6 | 55' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SPO |
| 7 | 57' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SPO |
| 8 | 71' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +8% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 98% · draw 2% · Sporting 0%
- Final margin
- Granada by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Granada by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 85% · draw 13% · Sporting 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 92% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Sporting
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
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