Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
Sevilla 1–0 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Eibar 1–0, and the replays lean Sevilla’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Eibar, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 1 | 1.72 |
 Eibar | 0 | 1.07 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Sevilla lucky · −26 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 6, 2 end level, Eibar win 2.
- 1 SEV 2 EIB 1
- 2 SEV 2 EIB 1
- 3 SEV 3 EIB 1
- 4 SEV 2 EIB 0
- 5 SEV 3 EIB 0
- 6 SEV 4 EIB 0
- 7 SEV 1 EIB 1
- 8 SEV 0 EIB 0
- 9 SEV 0 EIB 1
- 10 SEV 1 EIB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 64%, 20% end level, Eibar win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 20.0% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 20.6% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 23.8% |
| Draw | 20.2% |
| Eibar by 1 | 10.3% |
| Eibar by 2 | 3.8% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 15 | 1 | 1.72 | −0.72 |
 Eibar | 12 | 0 | 1.07 | −1.07 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Fernando Llorente Torres scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 57' | Michael Krohn-Dehli didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 72' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 83' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Fernando Llorente Torres scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +17% SEV |
| 2 | 24' | Gonzalo Escalante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% SEV |
| 3 | 54' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SEV |
| 4 | 57' | Michael Krohn-Dehli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +4% EIB |
| 5 | 62' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SEV |
| 6 | 72' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +3% EIB |
| 7 | 83' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +22% SEV |
| 8 | 86' | Sergio Enrich Ametller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 54% · draw 26% · Eibar 20%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 64% · draw 20% · Eibar 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 27 matches, 2015-16 · Sevilla · Eibar
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Getafe Mar 1, 2016 · replay 93% for Las Palmas
- Atlético 3–0 Real Sociedad Mar 1, 2016 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Celta 0–0 Villarreal Mar 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Málaga 1–2 Valencia Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Athletic 4–1 Deportivo Mar 2, 2016 · replay 90% for Athletic
- Levante 1–3 Real Madrid Mar 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Real Madrid
- Granada 2–0 Sporting Mar 3, 2016 · replay 92% for Granada
- Espanyol 0–3 Betis Mar 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Betis
- Rayo 1–5 Barcelona Mar 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona