Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 1, 2016
Atlético 3–0 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Real Sociedad 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.9. An own goal helped Atlético.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2.18 |
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Atlético about even · −11 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 8, 1 ends level, Real Sociedad win 1.
- 1 ATM 3 RSO 2
- 2 ATM 2 RSO 1
- 3 ATM 2 RSO 0
- 4 ATM 2 RSO 0
- 5 ATM 3 RSO 0
- 6 ATM 3 RSO 0
- 7 ATM 5 RSO 1
- 8 ATM 5 RSO 0
- 9 ATM 2 RSO 2
- 10 ATM 1 RSO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 84%, 11% end level, Real Sociedad win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 42.4% |
| Atlético by 2 | 21.3% |
| Atlético by 1 | 19.7% |
| Draw | 10.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 4.2% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 1.2% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 14 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.18 | −0.18 |
 Real Sociedad | 7 | 0 | 0.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 45' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 60' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 87' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% RSO |
| 2 | 4' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RSO |
| 3 | 7' | Own goal by nan, for AtléticoOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +21% ATM |
| 4 | 12' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +3% RSO |
| 5 | 29' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% RSO |
| 6 | 36' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% RSO |
| 7 | 40' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +4% RSO |
| 8 | 45' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +11% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 88% · draw 8% · Real Sociedad 3%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 84% · draw 11% · Real Sociedad 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Getafe Mar 1, 2016 · replay 93% for Las Palmas
- Celta 0–0 Villarreal Mar 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Sevilla 1–0 Eibar Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Málaga 1–2 Valencia Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Athletic 4–1 Deportivo Mar 2, 2016 · replay 90% for Athletic
- Levante 1–3 Real Madrid Mar 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Real Madrid
- Granada 2–0 Sporting Mar 3, 2016 · replay 92% for Granada
- Espanyol 0–3 Betis Mar 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Betis
- Rayo 1–5 Barcelona Mar 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona