Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 3, 2016
Espanyol 0–3 Betis: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Espanyol 3–0, and the replays lean Betis’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Espanyol, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.3 expected goals to 1.3).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 0 | 1.32 |
 Real Betis | 3 | 1.25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Betis lucky · −38 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 2, 3 end level, Betis win 5.
- 1 ESP 2 BET 1
- 2 ESP 3 BET 1
- 3 ESP 0 BET 0
- 4 ESP 0 BET 0
- 5 ESP 1 BET 1
- 6 ESP 0 BET 3
- 7 ESP 0 BET 2
- 8 ESP 1 BET 2
- 9 ESP 0 BET 1
- 10 ESP 1 BET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 25%, 27% end level, Betis win 49%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 2.4% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 6.4% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 15.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% |
| Betis by 1 | 24.1% |
| Betis by 2 | 14.2% |
| Betis by 3+ | 10.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 19 | 0 | 1.32 | −1.32 |
 Betis | 9 | 3 | 1.25 | +1.75 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.66 |
| 19' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 70' | Juan Manuel Vargas Risco scored from a shot | 0.02 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +9% BET |
| 2 | 13' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BET |
| 3 | 15' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% BET |
| 4 | 19' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +14% BET |
| 5 | 35' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% BET |
| 6 | 35' | Óscar Esau Duarte Gaitán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% BET |
| 7 | 46' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% BET |
| 8 | 70' | Juan Manuel Vargas Risco scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +2% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 16% · draw 21% · Betis 64%
- Final margin
- Betis by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 25% · draw 27% · Betis 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Getafe Mar 1, 2016 · replay 93% for Las Palmas
- Atlético 3–0 Real Sociedad Mar 1, 2016 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Celta 0–0 Villarreal Mar 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Sevilla 1–0 Eibar Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Málaga 1–2 Valencia Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Athletic 4–1 Deportivo Mar 2, 2016 · replay 90% for Athletic
- Levante 1–3 Real Madrid Mar 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Real Madrid
- Granada 2–0 Sporting Mar 3, 2016 · replay 92% for Granada
- Rayo 1–5 Barcelona Mar 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona