Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
Levante 1–3 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Levante 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.2. An own goal helped Real Madrid.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 1 | 1.21 |
 Real Madrid | 3 | 1.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Real Madrid about even · −25 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 2, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 6.
- 1 LEV 2 RMA 1
- 2 LEV 2 RMA 0
- 3 LEV 2 RMA 2
- 4 LEV 2 RMA 2
- 5 LEV 0 RMA 4
- 6 LEV 2 RMA 5
- 7 LEV 1 RMA 3
- 8 LEV 1 RMA 3
- 9 LEV 1 RMA 2
- 10 LEV 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 15%, 19% end level, Real Madrid win 65%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 4.1% |
| Levante by 1 | 9.3% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 23.5% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.1% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 22.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 12 | 1 | 1.21 | −0.21 |
 Real Madrid | 21 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.99 | +0.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 38' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 91' | Francisco Román Alarcón Suárez scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +4% RMA |
| 2 | 25' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LEV |
| 3 | 33' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% RMA |
| 4 | 37' | Own goal by nan, for Real MadridOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +17% RMA |
| 5 | 38' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +9% LEV |
| 6 | 81' | Rubén García Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% RMA |
| 7 | 81' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% RMA |
| 8 | 85' | Zouhair Feddal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 19% · draw 23% · Real Madrid 58%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 15% · draw 19% · Real Madrid 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Getafe Mar 1, 2016 · replay 93% for Las Palmas
- Atlético 3–0 Real Sociedad Mar 1, 2016 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Celta 0–0 Villarreal Mar 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Sevilla 1–0 Eibar Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Málaga 1–2 Valencia Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Athletic 4–1 Deportivo Mar 2, 2016 · replay 90% for Athletic
- Granada 2–0 Sporting Mar 3, 2016 · replay 92% for Granada
- Espanyol 0–3 Betis Mar 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Betis
- Rayo 1–5 Barcelona Mar 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona