Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
Málaga 1–2 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Málaga 2–1, and the replays lean Valencia’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Málaga, 3 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Valencia.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Valencia lucky · −26 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 1, 3 end level, Valencia win 6.
- 1 MAL 1 VAL 0
- 2 MAL 1 VAL 1
- 3 MAL 0 VAL 0
- 4 MAL 2 VAL 2
- 5 MAL 0 VAL 4
- 6 MAL 0 VAL 2
- 7 MAL 0 VAL 2
- 8 MAL 0 VAL 1
- 9 MAL 0 VAL 1
- 10 MAL 0 VAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 12%, 28% end level, Valencia win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Málaga by 2 | 1.7% |
| Málaga by 1 | 10.0% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Valencia by 1 | 30.0% |
| Valencia by 2 | 17.2% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 12.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 10 | 1 | 0.43 | +0.57 |
 Valencia | 12 | 1 | 1.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Duje Čop scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 39' | Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos didn’t score from a shot | 0.71 |
| 49' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shot | 0.26 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Duje Čop scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +21% MAL |
| 2 | 39' | Shkodran Mustafi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAL |
| 3 | 39' | Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +20% MAL |
| 4 | 40' | The game turned hereOwn goal by nan, for ValenciaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% VAL |
| 5 | 49' | Denis Cheryshev scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +24% VAL |
| 6 | 53' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% VAL |
| 7 | 81' | Egor Filipenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% VAL |
| 8 | 82' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 9% · draw 23% · Valencia 68%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 12% · draw 28% · Valencia 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Getafe Mar 1, 2016 · replay 93% for Las Palmas
- Atlético 3–0 Real Sociedad Mar 1, 2016 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Celta 0–0 Villarreal Mar 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Sevilla 1–0 Eibar Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Athletic 4–1 Deportivo Mar 2, 2016 · replay 90% for Athletic
- Levante 1–3 Real Madrid Mar 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Real Madrid
- Granada 2–0 Sporting Mar 3, 2016 · replay 92% for Granada
- Espanyol 0–3 Betis Mar 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Betis
- Rayo 1–5 Barcelona Mar 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Barcelona