Matchday 27 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 3, 2016
Rayo 1–5 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Rayo 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 10 of 10. Barcelona made the better chances: 3.6 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1.30 |
 Barcelona | 5 | 3.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Barcelona about even · −4 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 0, 0 end level, Barcelona win 10.
- 1 RAY 0 BAR 9
- 2 RAY 2 BAR 9
- 3 RAY 1 BAR 7
- 4 RAY 0 BAR 5
- 5 RAY 0 BAR 5
- 6 RAY 1 BAR 5
- 7 RAY 1 BAR 5
- 8 RAY 0 BAR 3
- 9 RAY 2 BAR 4
- 10 RAY 1 BAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 2%, 4% end level, Barcelona win 94%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Rayo by 2 | 0.4% |
| Rayo by 1 | 1.5% |
| Draw | 3.5% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 7.8% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 11.1% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 75.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 8 | 1 | 1.30 | −0.30 |
 Barcelona | 21 (1 pen) | 5 | 3.61 | +1.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Ivan Rakitić scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 22' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 52' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 56' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves scored from a shot | 0.69 |
| 68' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 71' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 85' | Arda Turan scored from a shot | 0.29 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Adrián Embarba Blázquez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BAR |
| 2 | 20' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% RAY |
| 3 | 21' | The game turned hereIvan Rakitić scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +20% BAR |
| 4 | 22' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +15% BAR |
| 5 | 37' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +1% RAY |
| 6 | 40' | Joaquín José Marín Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% BAR |
| 7 | 52' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +3% BAR |
| 8 | 68' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 2% · draw 4% · Barcelona 94%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 2% · draw 4% · Barcelona 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 27, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 4–0 Getafe Mar 1, 2016 · replay 93% for Las Palmas
- Atlético 3–0 Real Sociedad Mar 1, 2016 · replay 89% for Atlético
- Celta 0–0 Villarreal Mar 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 39% draws
- Sevilla 1–0 Eibar Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Sevilla
- Málaga 1–2 Valencia Mar 2, 2016 · replay 74% for Valencia
- Athletic 4–1 Deportivo Mar 2, 2016 · replay 90% for Athletic
- Levante 1–3 Real Madrid Mar 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Real Madrid
- Granada 2–0 Sporting Mar 3, 2016 · replay 92% for Granada
- Espanyol 0–3 Betis Mar 3, 2016 · replay 62% for Betis