Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Deportivo 3–3 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Deportivo and Málaga drew 3–3. Replayed with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 8 of 10, Málaga 1, and 1 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 0.8. An own goal helped Málaga.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 3 | 2.82 |
 Málaga | 3 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −34 Deportivo unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 8, 1 ends level, Málaga win 1.
- 1 DEP 2 MAL 1
- 2 DEP 2 MAL 1
- 3 DEP 2 MAL 0
- 4 DEP 4 MAL 2
- 5 DEP 2 MAL 0
- 6 DEP 3 MAL 0
- 7 DEP 5 MAL 1
- 8 DEP 5 MAL 0
- 9 DEP 1 MAL 1
- 10 DEP 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 77%, 14% end level, Málaga win 8%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 33.9% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 21.4% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 22.0% |
| Draw | 14.3% |
| Málaga by 1 | 6.2% |
| Málaga by 2 | 1.8% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 15 | 3 | 2.82 | +0.18 |
 Málaga | 5 | 2 | 0.75 | +1.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Pedro Mosquera Parada didn’t score from a shot | 0.66 |
| 28' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 33' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.66 |
| 42' | Celso Borges Mora scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 62' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 68' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 80' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Pedro Mosquera Parada didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +15% MAL |
| 2 | 28' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +15% MAL |
| 3 | 33' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +19% MAL |
| 4 | 42' | Celso Borges Mora scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +25% DEP |
| 5 | 62' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +35% MAL |
| 6 | 68' | Federico Nicolás Cartabia scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +26% DEP |
| 7 | 80' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +38% DEP |
| 8 | 88' | Own goal by nan, for MálagaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +47% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 86% · draw 10% · Málaga 4%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 77% · draw 14% · Málaga 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol