Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 7, 2016
Espanyol 2–1 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Rayo 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 2 | 1.67 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Espanyol about even · −11 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 8, 2 end level, Rayo win 0.
- 1 ESP 2 RAY 1
- 2 ESP 1 RAY 0
- 3 ESP 3 RAY 1
- 4 ESP 2 RAY 0
- 5 ESP 2 RAY 0
- 6 ESP 3 RAY 0
- 7 ESP 3 RAY 0
- 8 ESP 5 RAY 1
- 9 ESP 1 RAY 1
- 10 ESP 0 RAY 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 81%, 16% end level, Rayo win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 29.8% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 24.8% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 26.0% |
| Draw | 16.1% |
| Rayo by 1 | 3.0% |
| Rayo by 2 | 0.3% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 1.67 | +0.33 |
 Rayo | 7 | 1 | 0.23 | +0.77 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11' | Abraham González Casanova scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 60' | Jorge Franco Alviz didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
| 62' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 66' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 76' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shot | 0.04 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Abraham González Casanova scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +20% ESP |
| 2 | 57' | Aras Özbiliz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ESP |
| 3 | 58' | Jonhatan Montiel Caballero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% ESP |
| 4 | 60' | Jorge Franco Alviz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +5% RAY |
| 5 | 62' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +3% RAY |
| 6 | 63' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +3% RAY |
| 7 | 66' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +35% RAY |
| 8 | 76' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +39% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 78% · draw 17% · Rayo 4%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 81% · draw 16% · Rayo 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona