Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 6, 2016
Betis 2–0 Granada: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Granada 2–0, and the replays lean Betis’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Granada, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.4).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 2 | 0.66 |
 Granada | 0 | 0.43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Betis lucky · −42 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 4, 4 end level, Granada win 2.
- 1 BET 1 GRA 0
- 2 BET 1 GRA 0
- 3 BET 1 GRA 0
- 4 BET 2 GRA 0
- 5 BET 0 GRA 0
- 6 BET 1 GRA 1
- 7 BET 0 GRA 0
- 8 BET 0 GRA 0
- 9 BET 0 GRA 1
- 10 BET 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 38%, 40% end level, Granada win 22%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Betis by 2 | 8.8% |
| Betis by 1 | 26.6% |
| Draw | 40.1% |
| Granada by 1 | 16.8% |
| Granada by 2 | 4.3% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 11 | 2 | 0.66 | +1.34 |
 Granada | 10 | 0 | 0.43 | −0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 84' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 94' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a free kick | 0.08 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% BET |
| 2 | 30' | Charly Musonda Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% GRA |
| 3 | 46' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% GRA |
| 4 | 49' | Bruno González Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% GRA |
| 5 | 58' | David Barral Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% BET |
| 6 | 68' | David Barral Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BET |
| 7 | 72' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% BET |
| 8 | 84' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +41% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 77% · draw 17% · Granada 7%
- Final margin
- Betis by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 38% · draw 40% · Granada 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Betis · Granada
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol