Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Getafe 1–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Getafe and Sevilla drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Getafe win 5 of 10, Sevilla 2, and 3 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −19 Getafe about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 5, 3 end level, Sevilla win 2.
- 1 GET 2 SEV 1
- 2 GET 1 SEV 0
- 3 GET 1 SEV 0
- 4 GET 2 SEV 0
- 5 GET 4 SEV 1
- 6 GET 0 SEV 0
- 7 GET 0 SEV 0
- 8 GET 0 SEV 0
- 9 GET 0 SEV 1
- 10 GET 0 SEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 52%, 34% end level, Sevilla win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 6.5% |
| Getafe by 2 | 14.5% |
| Getafe by 1 | 30.5% |
| Draw | 34.1% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 11.7% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 2.2% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 14 | 1 | 1.09 | −0.09 |
 Sevilla | 7 | 1 | 0.39 | +0.61 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 78' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a free kick | 0.12 |
| 85' | Emiliano Daniel Velázquez Maldonado scored from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GET |
| 2 | 39' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% GET |
| 3 | 56' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% SEV |
| 4 | 57' | Jorge Andújar Moreno didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% GET |
| 5 | 78' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a free kickFinishing · 12% chance | +39% SEV |
| 6 | 85' | Emiliano Daniel Velázquez Maldonado scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +27% GET |
| 7 | 88' | Emiliano Daniel Velázquez Maldonado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% SEV |
| 8 | 89' | Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 57% · draw 31% · Sevilla 12%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 52% · draw 34% · Sevilla 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol