Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 6, 2016
Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad and Levante drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 7 of 10, Levante 1, and 2 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 1.65 |
 Levante | 1 | 0.30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −32 Real Sociedad unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 7, 2 end level, Levante win 1.
- 1 RSO 1 LEV 0
- 2 RSO 2 LEV 1
- 3 RSO 1 LEV 0
- 4 RSO 2 LEV 0
- 5 RSO 2 LEV 0
- 6 RSO 3 LEV 0
- 7 RSO 4 LEV 0
- 8 RSO 0 LEV 0
- 9 RSO 0 LEV 0
- 10 RSO 1 LEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 71%, 22% end level, Levante win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 20.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 21.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 28.6% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Levante by 1 | 6.1% |
| Levante by 2 | 0.9% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 1 | 1.65 | −0.65 |
 Levante | 10 | 1 | 0.30 | +0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Diego Antonio Reyes Rosales scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 23' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 29' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 72' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 77' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Diego Antonio Reyes Rosales scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +18% RSO |
| 2 | 23' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +24% LEV |
| 3 | 29' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% LEV |
| 4 | 70' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% LEV |
| 5 | 72' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +13% LEV |
| 6 | 73' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LEV |
| 7 | 77' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +13% LEV |
| 8 | 84' | Rubén García Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 75% · draw 19% · Levante 6%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 71% · draw 22% · Levante 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol