Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Villarreal 1–0, but the replays lean toward Villarreal: 4 wins in 10 to Las Palmas’s 2, 4 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 0 | 1.00 |
 Las Palmas | 1 | 0.49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Las Palmas lucky · −58 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 4, 4 end level, Las Palmas win 2.
- 1 VIL 1 LPA 0
- 2 VIL 2 LPA 1
- 3 VIL 1 LPA 0
- 4 VIL 2 LPA 0
- 5 VIL 0 LPA 0
- 6 VIL 1 LPA 1
- 7 VIL 1 LPA 1
- 8 VIL 1 LPA 1
- 9 VIL 0 LPA 1
- 10 VIL 1 LPA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 40%, 36% end level, Las Palmas win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 4.0% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 10.7% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 25.3% |
| Draw | 36.3% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 17.8% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 4.5% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 12 | 0 | 1.00 | −1.00 |
 Las Palmas | 10 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | David García Santana scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 77' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% LPA |
| 2 | 28' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% VIL |
| 3 | 29' | The game turned hereDavid García Santana scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +27% LPA |
| 4 | 44' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% VIL |
| 5 | 48' | Mario Gaspar Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LPA |
| 6 | 69' | Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LPA |
| 7 | 77' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +17% LPA |
| 8 | 88' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 51% · draw 32% · Las Palmas 17%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 40% · draw 36% · Las Palmas 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Villarreal · Las Palmas
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Sporting 0–2 Athletic Mar 6, 2016 · replay 80% for Athletic
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol