Matchday 28 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 6, 2016
Sporting 0–2 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Sporting 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.36 |
 Athletic Club | 2 | 1.08 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Athletic about even · −20 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 1, 3 end level, Athletic win 6.
- 1 SPO 3 ATH 2
- 2 SPO 1 ATH 1
- 3 SPO 1 ATH 1
- 4 SPO 1 ATH 1
- 5 SPO 0 ATH 4
- 6 SPO 0 ATH 3
- 7 SPO 1 ATH 3
- 8 SPO 0 ATH 1
- 9 SPO 0 ATH 1
- 10 SPO 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 7%, 25% end level, Athletic win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Sporting by 2 | 1.1% |
| Sporting by 1 | 6.0% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
| Athletic by 1 | 29.7% |
| Athletic by 2 | 21.2% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 16.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 5 | 0 | 0.36 | −0.36 |
 Athletic | 11 | 2 | 1.08 | +0.92 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 58' | Óscar de Marcos Arana scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 71' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Iker Muniain Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SPO |
| 2 | 26' | The game turned hereBeñat Etxebarria Urkiaga scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +28% ATH |
| 3 | 28' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% SPO |
| 4 | 32' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% ATH |
| 5 | 36' | Daniel Arnaud N''Di didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ATH |
| 6 | 43' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SPO |
| 7 | 52' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATH |
| 8 | 58' | Óscar de Marcos Arana scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +14% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 3% · draw 10% · Athletic 87%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 7% · draw 25% · Athletic 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Athletic
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Deportivo 3–3 Málaga Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Getafe 1–1 Sevilla Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Villarreal 0–1 Las Palmas Mar 5, 2016 · replay 42% for Las Palmas
- Real Madrid 7–1 Celta Mar 5, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Valencia 1–3 Atlético Mar 6, 2016 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Betis 2–0 Granada Mar 6, 2016 · replay 58% for Betis
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Levante Mar 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Eibar 0–4 Barcelona Mar 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Mar 7, 2016 · replay 89% for Espanyol